The two reports are packaged together to provide a unified discussion of statistical adjustment and other aspects of the census that the authoring panel has considered to date. Illustrations, maps. Citro, Daniel L. Cork, and Janet L. Free Returns We hope you are delighted with everything you buy from us.
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However, if you are not, we will refund or replace your order up to 30 days after purchase. Terms and exclusions apply; find out more from our Returns and Refunds Policy. Recently Viewed. The Census Interim Assessment. All listings for this product Buy it now Buy it now. New New. About this product Product Information Contains the full text of two reports: one is an interim review of major census operations, and the second report consists of a letter sent to William Barron, acting director of the Census Bureau.
It reviews the evaluations prepared in support of its decision regarding statistical adjustment. The two reports are packaged together.
Additional Product Features Author s. Panel to Review the Census, Constance F. Citro, Daniel L. Cork, and Janet L. Show more Show less. No ratings or reviews yet. In the near-term, a weakening of aerosol cooling would add to future warming, but can be tempered by reductions in methane emissions high confidence. Uncertainty in radiative forcing estimates particularly aerosol affects carbon budgets and the certainty of pathway categorizations. Some non-CO 2 forcers are emitted alongside CO 2 , particularly in the energy and transport sectors, and can be largely addressed through CO 2 mitigation.
Others require specific measures, for example, to target agricultural nitrous oxide N 2 O and methane CH 4 , some sources of black carbon, or hydrofluorocarbons high confidence. Emissions of N 2 O and NH 3 increase in some pathways with strongly increased bioenergy demand. All analysed pathways limiting warming to 1. The longer the delay in reducing CO 2 emissions towards zero, the larger the likelihood of exceeding 1. The faster reduction of net CO 2 emissions in 1.
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Limitations on the speed, scale and societal acceptability of CDR deployment also limit the conceivable extent of temperature overshoot. Limits to our understanding of how the carbon cycle responds to net negative emissions increase the uncertainty about the effectiveness of CDR to decline temperatures after a peak. CDR deployed at scale is unproven, and reliance on such technology is a major risk in the ability to limit warming to 1. CDR is needed less in pathways with particularly strong emphasis on energy efficiency and low demand.
The scale and type of CDR deployment varies widely across 1. Some pathways rely more on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage BECCS , while others rely more on afforestation, which are the two CDR methods most often included in integrated pathways.
Trade-offs with other sustainability objectives occur predominantly through increased land, energy, water and investment demand. Bioenergy use is substantial in 1. The share of primary energy from renewables increases while coal usage decreases across pathways limiting warming to 1. The overall deployment of CCS varies widely across 1. These ranges reflect both uncertainties in technological development and strategic mitigation portfolio choices.
Pathways with higher chances of holding warming to below 1. Transitions in global and regional land use are found in all pathways limiting global warming to 1. Pathways that limit global warming to 1. Such large transitions pose profound challenges for sustainable management of the various demands on land for human settlements, food, livestock feed, fibre, bioenergy, carbon storage, biodiversity and other ecosystem services high confidence.
Demand-side measures are key elements of 1.
Should statistical sampling be used in the United States Census
Lifestyle choices lowering energy demand and the land- and GHG-intensity of food consumption can further support achievement of 1. By and , all end-use sectors including building, transport, and industry show marked energy demand reductions in modelled 1. Sectoral models support the scale of these reductions. Choices about mitigation portfolios for limiting warming to 1.
In particular, demand-side and efficiency measures, and lifestyle choices that limit energy, resource, and GHG-intensive food demand support sustainable development medium confidence. However, specific mitigation measures, such as bioenergy, may result in trade-offs that require consideration. Why is it necessary and even vital to maintain the global temperature increase below 1.
Adaptation will be less difficult. Our world will suffer less negative impacts on intensity and frequency of extreme events, on resources, ecosystems, biodiversity, food security, cities, tourism, and carbon removal. This chapter builds on findings of AR5 and assesses new scientific evidence of changes in the climate system and the associated impacts on natural and human systems, with a specific focus on the magnitude and pattern of risks linked for global warming of 1.
Chapter 3 explores observed impacts and projected risks to a range of natural and human systems, with a focus on how risk levels change from 1. The chapter also revisits major categories of risk Reasons for Concern, RFC based on the assessment of new knowledge that has become available since AR5. The global climate has changed relative to the pre-industrial period, and there are multiple lines of evidence that these changes have had impacts on organisms and ecosystems, as well as on human systems and well-being high confidence.
The increase in global mean surface temperature GMST , which reached 0. Human-induced global warming has already caused multiple observed changes in the climate system high confidence. Changes include increases in both land and ocean temperatures, as well as more frequent heatwaves in most land regions high confidence. There is also high confidence global warming has resulted in an increase in the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves. Trends in intensity and frequency of some climate and weather extremes have been detected over time spans during which about 0.
This assessment is based on several lines of evidence, including attribution studies for changes in extremes since Several regional changes in climate are assessed to occur with global warming up to 1. In addition to the overall increase in GMST, it is important to consider the size and duration of potential overshoots in temperature. Furthermore, there are questions on how the stabilization of an increase in GMST of 1. Overshooting poses large risks for natural and human systems, especially if the temperature at peak warming is high, because some risks may be long-lasting and irreversible, such as the loss of some ecosystems high confidence.
The rate of change for several types of risks may also have relevance, with potentially large risks in the case of a rapid rise to overshooting temperatures, even if a decrease to 1. If overshoot is to be minimized, the remaining equivalent CO 2 budget available for emissions is very small, which implies that large, immediate and unprecedented global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases are required high confidence.
Robust increases in temperature means and extremes are also projected at 1. Climate models project robust 2 differences in regional climate between present-day and global warming up to 1. Large, robust and widespread differences are expected for temperature extremes high confidence. The strongest warming of hot extremes is projected to occur in central and eastern North America, central and southern Europe, the Mediterranean region including southern Europe, northern Africa and the Near East , western and central Asia, and southern Africa medium confidence.
The number of exceptionally hot days are expected to increase the most in the tropics, where interannual temperature variability is lowest; extreme heatwaves are thus projected to emerge earliest in these regions, and they are expected to already become widespread there at 1. Limiting global warming to 1. The regions with the largest increases in heavy precipitation events for 1.
The 2000 Census: interim assessment
Tropical cyclones are projected to decrease in frequency but with an increase in the number of very intense cyclones limited evidence , low confidence. Risks to natural and human systems are expected to be lower at 1. This difference is due to the smaller rates and magnitudes of climate change associated with a 1. Lower rates of change enhance the ability of natural and human systems to adapt, with substantial benefits for a wide range of terrestrial, freshwater, wetland, coastal and ocean ecosystems including coral reefs high confidence , as well as food production systems, human health, and tourism medium confidence , together with energy systems and transportation low confidence.
Exposure to multiple and compound climate-related risks is projected to increase between 1. For global warming from 1. Small island states and economically disadvantaged populations are particularly at risk high confidence. An intermediate temperature overshoot will have no long- term consequences for Arctic sea ice coverage, and hysteresis is not expected high confidence. A smaller sea level rise could mean that up to A slower rate of sea level rise enables greater opportunities for adaptation medium confidence. There is high confidence that sea level rise will continue beyond Instabilities exist for both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which could result in multi-meter rises in sea level on time scales of century to millennia.
There is medium confidence that these instabilities could be triggered at around 1. Risks have been identified for the survival, calcification, growth, development and abundance of a broad range of marine taxonomic groups, ranging from algae to fish, with substantial evidence of predictable trait-based sensitivities high confidence.
There are multiple lines of evidence that ocean warming and acidification corresponding to 1. Larger risks are expected for many regions and systems for global warming at 1. Future risks at 1. The impacts on natural and human systems would be greater if mitigation pathways temporarily overshoot 1. The size and duration of an overshoot would also affect future impacts e.
Changes in land use resulting from mitigation choices could have impacts on food production and ecosystem diversity. Risks of local species losses and, consequently, risks of extinction are much less in a 1.
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Risks associated with other biodiversity-related factors, such as forest fires, extreme weather events, and the spread of invasive species, pests and diseases, would also be lower at 1. Constraining global warming to 1. Risks for natural and managed ecosystems are higher on drylands compared to humid lands. Above 1. Many impacts are projected to be larger at higher latitudes, owing to mean and cold-season warming rates above the global average medium confidence.
High-latitude tundra and boreal forest are particularly at risk, and woody shrubs are already encroaching into tundra high confidence and will proceed with further warming. Constraining warming to 1. Ocean ecosystems are already experiencing large-scale changes, and critical thresholds are expected to be reached at 1. In the transition to 1. Other ecosystems e. Current ecosystem services from the ocean are expected to be reduced at 1. The risks of declining ocean productivity, shifts of species to higher latitudes, damage to ecosystems e.
The projected frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts in some regions are smaller under 1. Human exposure to increased flooding is projected to be substantially lower at 1. The differences in the risks among regions are strongly influenced by local socio-economic conditions medium confidence. Depending on future socio-economic conditions, limiting global warming to 1. Regions with particularly large benefits could include the Mediterranean and the Caribbean medium confidence. Socio-economic drivers, however, are expected to have a greater influence on these risks than the changes in climate medium confidence.
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This suggests a transition from medium to high risk of regionally differentiated impacts on food security between 1. Future economic and trade environments and their response to changing food availability medium confidence are important potential adaptation options for reducing hunger risk in low- and middle-income countries. Fisheries and aquaculture are important to global food security but are already facing increasing risks from ocean warming and acidification medium confidence.
These risks are projected to increase at 1. Small-scale fisheries in tropical regions, which are very dependent on habitat provided by coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass and kelp forests, are expected to face growing risks at 1. Risks of impacts and decreasing food security are projected to become greater as global warming reaches beyond 1.
Land use and land-use change emerge as critical features of virtually all mitigation pathways that seek to limit global warming to 1.
Most least-cost mitigation pathways to limit peak or end-of-century warming to 1. Whether this footprint would result in adverse impacts, for example on biodiversity or food production, depends on the existence and effectiveness of measures to conserve land carbon stocks, measures to limit agricultural expansion in order to protect natural ecosystems, and the potential to increase agricultural productivity medium agreement.
The impacts of large-scale CDR deployment could be greatly reduced if a wider portfolio of CDR options were deployed, if a holistic policy for sustainable land management were adopted, and if increased mitigation efforts were employed to strongly limit the demand for land, energy and material resources, including through lifestyle and dietary changes medium confidence. In particular, reforestation could be associated with significant co-benefits if implemented in a manner than helps restore natural ecosystems high confidence. Any increase in global temperature e.
Lower risks are projected at 1. Urban heat islands often amplify the impacts of heatwaves in cities high confidence. Risks for some vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever are projected to increase with warming from 1. Overall for vector- borne diseases, whether projections are positive or negative depends on the disease, region and extent of change high confidence. Lower risks of undernutrition are projected at 1. Incorporating estimates of adaptation into projections reduces the magnitude of risks high confidence.
The extent of risk depends on human vulnerability and the effectiveness of adaptation for regions coastal and non-coastal , informal settlements and infrastructure sectors such as energy, water and transport high confidence. Outmigration in agricultural- dependent communities is positively and statistically significantly associated with global temperature medium confidence. Our understanding of the links of 1.